Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.008522 0.009607 0.010796 0.012198 0.013811 0.015613 0.017783
2024-12-22 0.006529 0.007926 0.009591 0.011733 0.014434 0.017752 0.022171
2024-12-29 0.005586 0.007119 0.009049 0.011684 0.015225 0.019871 0.026518
2025-01-05 0.005144 0.006826 0.009045 0.012228 0.016743 0.023021 0.032591
2025-01-12 0.004491 0.006150 0.008422 0.011813 0.016839 0.024164 0.035932
2025-01-19 0.003997 0.005628 0.007934 0.011499 0.016994 0.025352 0.039439
2025-01-26 0.003674 0.005308 0.007687 0.011490 0.017574 0.027213 0.044230
2025-02-02 0.003532 0.005235 0.007789 0.012009 0.019020 0.030597 0.052037
2025-02-09 0.003279 0.004964 0.007558 0.011966 0.019528 0.032476 0.057481
2025-02-16 0.003095 0.004783 0.007446 0.012097 0.020332 0.034941 0.064359
2025-02-23 0.002872 0.004520 0.007175 0.011926 0.020577 0.036421 0.069550
2025-03-02 0.002728 0.004372 0.007078 0.012042 0.021342 0.038943 0.077216
2025-03-09 0.002553 0.004166 0.006880 0.011981 0.021822 0.041076 0.084668
2025-03-16 0.002324 0.003853 0.006471 0.011501 0.021453 0.041504 0.088550
2025-03-23 0.002187 0.003686 0.006306 0.011455 0.021926 0.043708 0.096866
2025-03-30 0.002146 0.003684 0.006436 0.011986 0.023633 0.048769 0.112985
2025-04-06 0.001981 0.003446 0.006108 0.011581 0.023323 0.049350 0.118090
2025-04-13 0.001843 0.003249 0.005843 0.011274 0.023189 0.050306 0.124362
2025-04-20 0.001755 0.003136 0.005728 0.011265 0.023711 0.052868 0.135490
2025-04-27 0.001732 0.003146 0.005853 0.011773 0.025466 0.058672 0.157053
2025-05-04 0.001650 0.003036 0.005730 0.011730 0.025930 0.061329 0.170031
2025-05-11 0.001592 0.002968 0.005686 0.011858 0.026817 0.065215 0.187717
2025-05-18 0.001509 0.002844 0.005518 0.011691 0.026956 0.067125 0.199558